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Press
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But
the Development Budget Coordinating Committee (DBCC) does not see the
economy growing seven percent at anytime during President Arroyo’s term,
according to Clarence Pascual, LEARN senior researcher. The DBCC approves
the government’s macroeconomic and inflation targets, which are used in
formulating the budget. Based on the proposed 2004 budget, the
inter-agency body is looking at an average 5.5 percent growth between 2004
and 2009. It expects a growth rate of 4.8 percent in the next three years,
way below the required seven percent. To
fulfill its promise, the government must either revise its growth targets
or significantly improve the ability of the economy to generate new jobs,
Pascual said. But both options require a radical departure from current
economic policies. The
labor groups warn that if the DBCC raises its growth targets and these are
not achieved, the government will lose its credibility in financial
markets. This would hurt government’s ability to raise funds in
international bond markets to finance the growing deficit. But if the DBCC’s
growth targets are maintained, and there are no radical policy changes,
then the President loses her credibility to the Filipino people, according
to them. From
6M to 10M target
But
the six-million target, according to labor
groups, may have been abandoned after it was shown to result in even
higher unemployment by the end of President Arroyo’s term. Estimates
by LEARN show that creating only six million jobs in the next six years
means that number of unemployed workers will increase to six million by
2010, from four million today. In
the last three years, the working age population (15-65 years old) grew 3%
per year while the labor force expanded 4%.
If we take the midpoint and assume that the labor force will grow
3.5% in the next six years, it will reach 43 million in 2010, from 35
million today-an increase of eight million workers. But since only six
million jobs will be generated (the lower end of the administration's
target range), two million workers will swell the ranks of the unemployed. With
four million unemployed today, this will bring the number to six million
in 2010. Already, the current unemployment rate of 12% matches levels
reached during the mid-1980s depression. With its 10-point legacy, the
Arroyo administration will drive unemployment to record high levels in the
next six years. Repeating
the six-million-jobs mistake, according to the groups would make the
president look ridiculous. They add that it would be like promising that
unemployment will rise during Arroyo’s term. But
at the rate President Arroyo is doing her job, they note, rising
unemployment is not a remote possibility. According to LEARN, unemployment
rose by 600,000 in the first three years of the Arroyo administration. If
the current pace of job creation, roughly one million jobs a year, is
sustained in the coming years, unemployment will rise even more under
Arroyo’s watch. That’s because 1.3 million workers are expected to
join the search for jobs every year. No
strategy, ineffective programs Raising
the job creation target to 10 million calls attention to the
government’s employment strategy. The government
has presented its 10-point agenda as geared towards job creation. It cites
the development of APL
and LEARN described the administration’s 10-point agenda as highly
ineffective in the face of massive joblessness and poverty. They argued
that each of these measures will bring benefits, but they do not
constitute a full employment strategy. The
provision of loans to small and medium scale enterprises and the
development of They point out that the other measures have an indirect and small effect or are likely to impact on job creation only after Arroyo’s term. They cite as examples the building of classrooms and the provision of universal education. Still others have uncertain and dubious impact as far as job creation is concerned. The groups doubt the automation of the electoral process, peace talks with rebels, and reconciliation with the political opposition, if achieved, will impact on employment generation. Contact Persons:
See also: GMA’s promise of 6-10 M jobs a sick joke on workers - 6 M unemployed in 2010 The
empress has no clothes - Clarence Pascual and |
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Alliance of
Progressive Labor (APL) 2004 |
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In
a joint press briefing, the Alliance of Progressive Labor (APL) and the
Labor Education and Research Network (LEARN) revealed that the 10-million
goal is inconsistent with the government’s own economic numbers. 