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Letter
to the Editor |
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The current crisis brought by the hostage
taking of Angelo dela Cruz has brought to the
fore the stark realities of the worsening unemployment that has been
griping the country for many years now. And like their handling of the
crisis in In her inaugural speech, President Gloria
Macapagal Arroyo promised to create at least
six million, possibly 10 million jobs in the next six years. Obviously,
such numbers were intended to impress. But a study done by the Labor
Education and Research Network (LEARN) clearly shows that the
President’s promise is at best all sound bite and no substance. At
worst, it’s a sick joke played on Filipino workers. What the President’s promise actually
means is that creating only six million jobs over the next six years will
leave over six million Filipinos unemployed at the end of the
President’s term! And will raise the unemployment rate to a record high
14% in 2010. In the last three years, the labor force
has grown by 3.5% per year. If
in the next six years it continues to grow at this pace, the labor force
will expand to 43 million in 2010, from 35 million today—an increase of
eight million workers. But since only six million jobs will be generated,
two million workers will be added the ranks of the unemployed. That will increase the number of jobless
Filipinos to six million in six years, from four million today (the
average for the period July 2003-April 2004). A staggering 14%
unemployment rate by the end of PGMA’s term,
compared with 12% in the previous four quarters. Surely not a legacy the
President can be proud of. Six million jobs in six years is hardly
an ambitious goal. That’s
the same one million jobs a year the Arroyo Administration claims to have
done it in its first three years in office - exactly where and what kind
of jobs was actually generated is not clear. Between 2001 and 2004, the
economy is reported to have created more than three million jobs, but at
the same time unemployment rose to 4.2 million or 12% in the last four
quarters, from 3.6 million or 11% in 2000! Simply put, a million jobs a
year was not enough. So should the President aim for 10
million jobs? A little number crunching will show that generating
“possibly 10 million jobs” is next to impossible.
To do so, the economy must grow 7% each year for the next six
years, after already expanding 5% in the last six years. That would divert
from past boom-bust trends of the economy. But to truly break from the
past requires a departure from the failed economic policies of the past.
It calls for CHANGE -- not continuity -- IN ECONOMIC STRATEGY. Based
on her 10-point program, this is farthest from the President’s mind. Without a shift in strategy, the economy
faces rough sailing in the next six years. The unresolved fiscal crisis,
which amazingly has proved resistant to growth, threatens to put an end to
the current growth cycle. A slowdown will undermine the government’s
modest – if grossly inadequate – goal of six million jobs, let alone
its fighting target of 10 million jobs. Without a change in economic
policies, President Arroyo’s promises are bound to be broken. Again! Daniel L. Edralin See also: More
unpleasant arithmetic on GMA's target jobs
P20 ecola, an insult to NCR workers |
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Alliance of
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