In the closing hours of a last-ditch attempt by WTO member states to reach an agreement on a July framework it is clear that the WTO has not learnt any lessons. Not only does the substance of the framework fail to address the life and death concerns of developing countries but the process is so rotten that developing countries are being bullied and pressured, behind closed doors, to accept positions that are not in their interests.

Take cotton for example, last night the four West African states – Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali and Chad – who proposed the Cotton Initiative, were subject to intense negotiations by the US until 4am in order to reach a “compromised outcome” on the cotton issue. The result of this intense negotiating session is the current text which does a great job in accommodating the US position but offers little comfort to 10 million cotton farmers in West Africa who are told that the WTO will set up a sub-committee on cotton to review the situation. Further negotiations and consultations similar to the cotton negotiations, for example in agriculture and non-agricultural market access (NAMA), will continue through the night and all day Saturday to ensure that any member-state resisting the framework is put in their proper place.

This process is highly unjust and completely unacceptable given the fact that the text still reflects the interests of developed countries and fails to offer anything concrete for development. The sad truth is that rich countries, particularly the EU and US, have failed to make any concrete concessions to move toward a more fair and equitable trading system. The text remains unbalanced in favour of the US and EU. For example, it retains the US demands for an expanded blue box and still contains strong and specific language on “sensitive products” for the EU, even as it tells developing countries to decrease their miniscule supports under the de minimis category.

The text maintains the status quo of market distortions and in doing so fails to make any progress towards a fair and market-oriented agricultural trading system that tackles the structural causes of market distortions and prevents agricultural dumping. Unless widespread agricultural dumping is addressed there is little hope for developing countries to protect and promote food security, rural livelihoods and rural development.

We make an urgent plea to all developing country member-states to resist the bullying tactics of the US and EU and reject the July framework in its current state. As it stands the text will only serve to further entrench poverty and ruin the lives of millions of farmers globally. Instead, we want multilateral trade rules that are fair for all rather than rules that protect the strong and destroy the weak.

The Alliance of Progressive Labor deplores the ruthless dispersal of the protest-march by Akbayan and MASP or Movement for the Advancement for Student Power, during the State-of-the-Nation address of GMA in Congress.

The police blocked our peaceful march in front of the St. Peters Basilica Church along Commonwealth Avenue, in Quezon City on our way to Congress. However, the police did not settle for any negotiation and immediately pushed the group back using their shields. Although we were already retreating slowly, the police began using their truncheons and hit anyone in front of them thus injuring many of the protesters that include Edwin Bustillos, Deputy Secretary General of APL.

The police continued chasing us until we are about a kilometer away. We regrouped and held an indignation program until all participants were found. Gil Taer, a union official from the National Union of Workers in Hotels and Restaurants and Allied Industries (Nuwhrain), who was arrested during the dispersal, was later released by the police upon the intervention of Akbayan’s lawyers.

What happened was a clear indication that the Arroyo government’s handling of our legitimate right to free expression is worsening. The police had become disturbingly inconsistent and intolerant in dealing with protest rallies. Weeks ago, during our campaign to save the life of Angelo Dela Cruz, the police prevented us from reaching Mendiola when they ruthlessly dispersed us along Recto.

The intention of the Arroyo government is clear: to cow us by using brute force. We have been in this situation before but we have only become more resilient and determined in fighting for our rights that lead to the overthrow of the Marcos dictatorship and setting-up of democratic institutions in our society.

However, we all know that these institutions are still controlled by the elites. Until the vestiges of oppression and exploitation are completely overwhelmed by our struggles, our hard earned democratic space will always be in danger of being taken away from us.

Thus, let us not stop our struggles until we finally fulfill our avowed commitment for a society that will truly uphold the interest of the Filipino people. Let us not stop until the government has completely abandoned its neo-liberal policies that only cater to the interests of the capitalists. Let us not stop until social justice and the equitable distribution of wealth are fully realized. Let us not stop until our future is secured not by the rich and the elite few but by the workers and other basic sectors in our society.

Nakalaya man si Angelo de la Cruz mula sa pagkakabihag ng mga terorista sa Iraq, ang paglaya naman ng ating sektor mula sa gapos ng kahirapan at pang-aapi ay hindi pa din matugunan ng administrasyong Arroyo.

AP photoPatuloy na ipinagkakait sa mga manggagawa ang tamang halaga ng sahod. Limos ang 20 pesos dagdag sa sahod na ibinigay ng National Capital Region-Regional Tripartite Wages and Productivity Board (NCR-RTWP) kumpara sa hinihingi nating dagdag na 65 pesos. Mas malala, Emergency Cost of Living Allowance (ECOLA) ang dinagdagan at hindi ang “basic pay” na pinagbabatayan ng komputasyon ng overtime, 13th month pay, atbp.

Gayundin, patuloy na lumalala ang banta ng kawalan ng trabaho sa manggagawa. Sa kasalukuyan, nakaamba ang banta ng malawakang tanggalan ng trabaho sa mga ahensya ng gubyerno upang makabawas-gastos diumano sa pamahalaan.

Sa kanyang ipinagmamalaking 10-Point Agenda, ipinamamandila ni Pangulong Arroyo na bago matapos ang kanyang anim na taon ng panunungkulan ay makakalikha siya ng 10 milyong trabaho. Ngunit sa pag-aaral, tinatayang kakailanganing lumago ang ekonomiya ng 7 porsiyento kada taon upang makamit ang ambisyosong pangako na ito.

Ngunit paano lalaki ang ekonomiya kung patuloy na ipatutupad ng pamahalaan ang mga patakarang nagbubukas lamang sa ating bansa sa patuloy na daluyong ng globalisasyon? Kung patuloy ang liberalisasyon o ang pagbaha sa lokal na pamilihan ng mga dayuhang produkto na pumapatay sa ikinabubuhay ng milyon-milyong Pilipino? Kung patuloy lamang na mangungutang ang gubyerno para sa mga imprastrakturang kinukurakot lamang ang pondo pero mamamayan ang nagbabayad sa pamamagitan ng mga buwis?

Bunga ng mga patakarang nagreresulta lamang sa matinding kahirapan at kawalan ng trabaho dito sa Pilipinas, napipilitan ang mga Pilipino na makipagsapalaran sa ibang bansa at doon maghanap ng trabaho. Ang nangyari kay Angelo de la Cruz ay isang halimbawa lamang ng mga panganib na sinusuong ng ating mga kababayan sa ibang bansa. At hindi lingid sa atin na mas malupit o higit na kaawaawa ang sinapit ng iba pa nating mga kababayan bunga ng mga pagmamaltratong dinanas nila sa ibang bansa.

Ang pagpapalago ng ating lokal na ekonomiya kasabay ng pagkakaroon ng sapat, disente at permanenteng trabaho o “full employment” ang tutugon sa problema ng mga manggagawa. Ito ang programa na kailangang atupagin ng gobyerno at hindi ang patuloy na pagpapalabas o pag-eksport ng mga manggagawa sa ibang bansa. Hindi dapat inaasa ng gobyerno sa mga OFWs ang pag-unlad ng ating ekonomiya kundi sa mga kongkretong programa ng pagtalikod sa mga patakaran ng liberalisasyon, deregulasyon, pribatisasyon, atbp.

Sapat, disente, at permanenteng trabaho para sa lahat! Ipatupad!

Mabuhay ang manggagawa!

Mabuhay ang Unyonismo ng Masang Pilipino!

Labor groups cast serious doubt on the Arroyo administration’s sincerity in fulfilling its promise to create 10 million jobs in the next six years.

In a joint press briefing, the Alliance of Progressive Labor (APL) and the Labor Education and Research Network (LEARN) revealed that the 10-million goal is inconsistent with the government’s own economic numbers.

APL and LEARN noted that the economy must expand seven percent every year in the next six years to reach the 10-million target. Presidential Chief of Staff Rigoberto Tiglao has cited estimates saying that the creation of 10 million jobs requires the economy to grow by an annual average of seven percent.

But the Development Budget Coordinating Committee (DBCC) does not see the economy growing seven percent at anytime during President Arroyo’s term, according to Clarence Pascual, LEARN senior researcher. The DBCC approves the government’s macroeconomic and inflation targets, which are used in formulating the budget. Based on the proposed 2004 budget, the inter-agency body is looking at an average 5.5 percent growth between 2004 and 2009. It expects a growth rate of 4.8 percent in the next three years, way below the required seven percent.

To fulfill its promise, the government must either revise its growth targets or significantly improve the ability of the economy to generate new jobs, Pascual said. But both options require a radical departure from current economic policies.

The labor groups warn that if the DBCC raises its growth targets and these are not achieved, the government will lose its credibility in financial markets. This would hurt government’s ability to raise funds in international bond markets to finance the growing deficit. But if the DBCC’s growth targets are maintained, and there are no radical policy changes, then the President loses her credibility to the Filipino people, according to them.

From 6M to 10M target

President Arroyo is expected to elaborate on the 10-point agenda in her state of the nation address to Congress early next week. Earlier, she had vowed to create at least six million, possibly 10 million jobs during her term.

But the six-million target, according to labor groups, may have been abandoned after it was shown to result in even higher unemployment by the end of President Arroyo’s term.

Estimates by LEARN show that creating only six million jobs in the next six years means that number of unemployed workers will increase to six million by 2010, from four million today.

In the last three years, the working age population (15-65 years old) grew 3% per year while the labor force expanded 4%. If we take the midpoint and assume that the labor force will grow 3.5% in the next six years, it will reach 43 million in 2010, from 35 million today-an increase of eight million workers. But since only six million jobs will be generated (the lower end of the administration’s target range), two million workers will swell the ranks of the unemployed.

With four million unemployed today, this will bring the number to six million in 2010. Already, the current unemployment rate of 12% matches levels reached during the mid-1980s depression. With its 10-point legacy, the Arroyo administration will drive unemployment to record high levels in the next six years.

Repeating the six-million-jobs mistake, according to the groups would make the president look ridiculous. They add that it would be like promising that unemployment will rise during Arroyo’s term.

But at the rate President Arroyo is doing her job, they note, rising unemployment is not a remote possibility. According to LEARN, unemployment rose by 600,000 in the first three years of the Arroyo administration. If the current pace of job creation, roughly one million jobs a year, is sustained in the coming years, unemployment will rise even more under Arroyo’s watch. That’s because 1.3 million workers are expected to join the search for jobs every year.

No strategy, ineffective programs

Raising the job creation target to 10 million calls attention to the government’s employment strategy. The government has presented its 10-point agenda as geared towards job creation. It cites the development of Subic and Clark , providing more loans to small and medium scale enterprises, building of classrooms, reviving peace talks with insurgents, computerizing elections as projects aimed at encouraging investments and generating employment.

APL and LEARN described the administration’s 10-point agenda as highly ineffective in the face of massive joblessness and poverty. They argued that each of these measures will bring benefits, but they do not constitute a full employment strategy.

The provision of loans to small and medium scale enterprises and the development of Subic and Clark are probably the government’s best shots in creating employment. But these are not enough to generate 10 million jobs, according to them.

They point out that the other measures have an indirect and small effect or are likely to impact on job creation only after Arroyo’s term. They cite as examples the building of classrooms and the provision of universal education. Still others have uncertain and dubious impact as far as job creation is concerned. The groups doubt the automation of the electoral process, peace talks with rebels, and reconciliation with the political opposition, if achieved, will impact on employment generation.

The current crisis brought by the hostage taking of Angelo dela Cruz has brought to the fore the stark realities of the worsening unemployment that has been griping the country for many years now. And like their handling of the crisis in Iraq , government’s efforts in addressing the unemployment crisis remains wanting.

In her inaugural speech, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo promised to create at least six million, possibly 10 million jobs in the next six years. Obviously, such numbers were intended to impress. But a study done by the Labor Education and Research Network (LEARN) clearly shows that the President’s promise is at best all sound bite and no substance. At worst, it’s a sick joke played on Filipino workers.

What the President’s promise actually means is that creating only six million jobs over the next six years will leave over six million Filipinos unemployed at the end of the President’s term! And will raise the unemployment rate to a record high 14% in 2010.

In the last three years, the labor force has grown by 3.5% per year. If in the next six years it continues to grow at this pace, the labor force will expand to 43 million in 2010, from 35 million today—an increase of eight million workers. But since only six million jobs will be generated, two million workers will be added the ranks of the unemployed.

That will increase the number of jobless Filipinos to six million in six years, from four million today (the average for the period July 2003-April 2004). A staggering 14% unemployment rate by the end of PGMA’s term, compared with 12% in the previous four quarters. Surely not a legacy the President can be proud of.

Six million jobs in six years is hardly an ambitious goal. That’s the same one million jobs a year the Arroyo Administration claims to have done it in its first three years in office – exactly where and what kind of jobs was actually generated is not clear. Between 2001 and 2004, the economy is reported to have created more than three million jobs, but at the same time unemployment rose to 4.2 million or 12% in the last four quarters, from 3.6 million or 11% in 2000! Simply put, a million jobs a year was not enough.

So should the President aim for 10 million jobs? A little number crunching will show that generating “possibly 10 million jobs” is next to impossible. To do so, the economy must grow 7% each year for the next six years, after already expanding 5% in the last six years. That would divert from past boom-bust trends of the economy. But to truly break from the past requires a departure from the failed economic policies of the past. It calls for CHANGE — not continuity — IN ECONOMIC STRATEGY. Based on her 10-point program, this is farthest from the President’s mind.

Without a shift in strategy, the economy faces rough sailing in the next six years. The unresolved fiscal crisis, which amazingly has proved resistant to growth, threatens to put an end to the current growth cycle. A slowdown will undermine the government’s modest – if grossly inadequate – goal of six million jobs, let alone its fighting target of 10 million jobs. Without a change in economic policies, President Arroyo’s promises are bound to be broken. Again!

Daniel L. Edralin
Chairperson
Alliance of Progressive Labor (APL)